Will Ukraine or Turkey Be the Next EU Member? A Closer Look
The question of which country, Turkey or Ukraine, will be the next to join the European Union (EU) is a topic of intense debate and speculation. The current state of both countries' aspirations and the geopolitical landscape paint a complex picture regarding their future prospects.
EU Perceptions of Turkey
When it comes to Turkey's potential EU membership, the general sentiment among EU citizens is decidedly negative. President Erdogan's actions and policies, which are seen as aligning more closely with Russian President Putin's approach, have garnered considerable criticism. Erdogan's confrontational stance towards the EU, evident in his earlier interactions during negotiation phases, has struck a chord with many EU citizens who view Turkey as moving away from EU ideals.
With the current trajectory, it seems unlikely that Turkey would be welcomed into the EU. The EU's current stance is that Turkey is not on the path to membership, as evidenced by ongoing discussions and the lack of significant progress in negotiations. This is partly due to Turkey's alignment with Russia and its perceived shift away from Western values.
Ukraine's Path to EU Membership
On the other hand, Ukraine, despite its pre-war issues, has made progress and shown resilience. President Zelenskiy has been at the forefront of reforms and has managed to maintain and even advance the country's progress during the ongoing conflicts. However, the road ahead for Ukraine is still long and challenging. Fulfilling the criteria set by the EU for membership will require significant improvements in various sectors, including the rule of law, corruption, and economic stability.
The EU has provided support to Ukraine through various measures, such as financial aid and technical assistance, to help the country meet these criteria. With the recent war in Ukraine, sympathy from the EU has certainly played a role, and this could be a factor that accelerates the process. However, it is important to note that the EU's primary criteria for membership remain rigorous and are not easily met.
Geopolitical Dynamics and EU Decisions
The decision to accept new members into the EU is complex and multifaceted, involving not only the applicant countries' readiness but also the geopolitical realities and the interests of current EU member states. There are emerging geopolitical trends that could influence these decisions.
For instance, the Eastern Partnership and the European Neighborhood Policy have shifted in recent years, reflecting a more strategic approach to geopolitical influence. Turkey, being at a crossroads, may reconsider its alignment with the EU or the East. As Turkey considers its options, it may decide to prioritize staying aligned with or even joining the regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. This shift could lead to a reevaluation of Turkey's position as a candidate for EU membership.
Ukraine faces a different challenge. Even if it meets all the criteria for EU membership, the question remains whether the EU as an institution will still exist in its current form. The war in Ukraine has had severe economic and political consequences for the EU, and there are growing sentiments among some European citizens that the organization has overstepped its mandate. Some have even suggested that under the current circumstances, the EU might dissolve or transform, possibly leading to a democratic exit by member states.
The EU's response to Russia over the past few years has been criticized as ineffective, and the failure of the US plan to use Ukraine to undermine Russian influence has led to economic hardships for the EU. This could impact the decision to admit Ukraine, as the organization itself may face significant changes.
Conclusion
While it remains uncertain whether Ukraine or Turkey will be the next EU member, both countries face their own unique challenges. Ukraine has made substantial progress, but it still has a long way to go to meet all the criteria. Turkey, on the other hand, faces significant geopolitical pressures and may question its commitment to the EU. Ultimately, the decision rests with the EU member states, who will weigh the political, economic, and strategic factors that influence their membership decisions.
The future of the EU and its membership criteria will likely be shaped not only by the progress of these two countries but also by the broader geopolitical shifts in the region.