Why the European Union May Never Push Greece Out: The Political and Economic Complexities

The question of why the European Union (EU) may never forcibly remove Greece from the union is multifaceted and rooted in both political and economic complexities. This article delves into the reasons why such a move would be problematic and ultimately unfeasible, while also examining the broader implications of Greece's continued membership.

Political and Economic Subordination

The European Union is fundamentally a political project designed to foster unity and stability among its member states. Since the early 1990s, with the signing of the Treaty on European Union (Maastricht Treaty) in 1992, the political goals have taken precedence over economic considerations. This shift has made it difficult to address economic issues like Greece's debt crisis without considering the broader political ramifications.

The Eurozone crisis highlighted the challenges of subordinating economic policy to political objectives. Greece's inclusion in the Eurozone and subsequent financial struggles were seen as a 'Trojan Horse,' both a challenge to the nascent monetary union and a test of EU members' resolve. The crisis exposed the delicate balance between economic solidarity and political unity.

Lack of Mechanism for Ejection

There is no established mechanism within the EU framework to expel a member state against its will. Even in the most dire situations, where a country's continued membership is deemed to be detrimental to the EU's overall stability, there are no legal or politically feasible options for removal. The fundamental principle of member state sovereignty has been respected, ensuring that even states like Greece can insist on staying within the union despite their economic challenges.

Even when it appeared that Greece might be pushed out, such as during the 2015 referendum and subsequent negotiations, the EU opted to provide further financial support rather than risk the potential negative consequences of expulsion. The decision to prioritize political solidarity over economic interests has been a hallmark of EU policy during this period.

Geopolitical Significance and Influence

Several EU member states, including Greece, Hungary, and Cyprus, have political stances that are distant from those of Western European powers. Greece's proximity to Asia Minor and its historical ties with Russia have made it a focal point for geopolitical considerations. The EU's desire to maintain influence in the Eastern Mediterranean and stabilize the Balkans has often overridden economic concerns.

The geopolitical landscape has also influenced EU policymakers. The balance between Western Europe and Eastern Europe, as well as the relationship with Russia, has been carefully managed through financial support to Greece. By propping up Greece, the EU has been able to secure its strategic interests in the Mediterranean and the Balkans, thus avoiding the potential rupture of the union.

Financial and Economic Dependencies

The financial dependency between EU member states has been a critical factor in sustaining Greece's membership. The EU and its member states have provided billions of euros in financial assistance to Greece, partly driven by the recognition that defaulting on its debts would have far-reaching economic repercussions. This includes not only the immediate financial burden but also the broader economic impact on the Eurozone and the EU as a whole.

The heavy influence of creditor institutions within the EU has often led to a situation where foreign taxpayers are forced to foot the bill for Greek debts. This arrangement has perpetuated a cycle of dependency, where Greece continues to receive support but is unable to fully repay its debts. The EU's decision to maintain Greece's membership is, in part, a strategic move to ensure that the single currency remains stable and to avoid any potential chain reaction that could affect the entire Eurozone.

Conclusion

The European Union's decision to uphold Greece's membership, despite significant economic challenges, is a reflection of the complex interplay between political and economic considerations. The lack of a legal mechanism for expulsion, geopolitical dependencies, and the financial support required to maintain the EU's stability have all contributed to the status quo. While pushing Greece out might seem like a solution to some, the potential political fallout and economic risks make it an unfeasible option. The EU's commitment to unity and stability continues to guide its approach to addressing issues like Greece's debt crisis, reflecting the union's fundamental nature as a political project rather than an economic one.