Why Russia Stands to Lose in Its War Against Ukraine

Vladimir Putin's plan for a swift, decisive victory in Ukraine has so far proven to be a colossal miscalculation. The war has drawn out far longer than anticipated, with Putin failing to achieve his initial goals of a quick offensive and regime change in Kiev. Understanding the motivations behind Russia's invasion and evaluating its potential outcomes can shed light on why Russia is likely to face significant geopolitical consequences, rather than any strategic gains.

Initial Aspirations and Miscalculations

Initially, Putin aimed for a brief operation, intending to capture key Ukrainian cities, overthrow the government, and install a pro-Russian regime within weeks. As history has shown, there was a major miscalculation in how fiercely Ukraine would resist, and how much international support it would garner from NATO and global partners.

A Lack of Clear Gains

Q1: None of That Matters. Putin's primary objective was not about gaining territory, but ensuring Russia's survival as a sovereign nation. However, this self-preservation can only be maintained if Russia does not face prolonged conflict and international isolation.

Strategic Gains vs. Reality

Many have suggested that Russia might gain arable land, valuable minerals, oil resources, and a warm-water port that could facilitate global trade. These resources are indeed important, but their acquisition does not necessarily translate into strategic gains for Russia.

A Petroleum and Strategic Depth Debate

One major issue with these resources is that they lie within Ukraine, and Russia's proxy forces have not been able to secure them. The debris of war, including destroyed infrastructure, makes it challenging for Russia to control and exploit these resources. Moreover, de-icing of pipelines and the need to rebuild infrastructure could further extend the timeline of any potential Russian gains.

Warm Water Port and Naval Access

A third objective often cited is gaining a warm-water port through Mariupol. However, even if Russia were to achieve this, it would come at a heavy cost both financially and politically.

Political and Geopolitical Consequences

Q2: Seeking Peace or Ensuring Survival? Russia is not merely fighting for its survival; it is also seeking to restore stability and eliminate what it perceives as an existential threat to its national security. This includes the security of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.

However, the war in Ukraine has also led to significant geopolitical changes. NATO has increased its military presence in Eastern Europe, while countries outside the alliance have offered more support and assistance to Ukraine. These developments could reduce the strategic importance of a warm-water port or other resources, as alternative supply routes and partnerships may emerge.

International Implications

The war has also resulted in sanctions imposed by Western nations, further isolating Russia economically and diplomatically. Economic sanctions, along with diplomatic pressures, have curtailed Russia’s access to international markets, hindered its ability to attract foreign investment, and hindered its technological and industrial advancements.

The Irrelevance of Traditional Gains

Q3: Endgame and Long-Term Consequences. The war in Ukraine is not just about seizing territory or securing resources. It is increasingly about the long-term implications for Russian influence, stability, and prosperity. The continued conflict means ongoing occupation and unrest, leading to economic and humanitarian crises that undermine Russia's strategic goals.

Moreover, the international community's response to the war is complex and multi-dimensional. It includes diplomatic isolation, military sanctions, and humanitarian assistance, none of which Russia can easily overcome. The focus on these long-term consequences means any traditional gains, such as securing resources or ports, may prove to be temporary and unsustainable.

Conclusion

Vladimir Putin's initial plans for a swift victory in Ukraine have proven to be a catastrophic miscalculation. Russia is now facing a prolonged and costly conflict that threatens to undermine its sovereignty, stability, and global influence. While traditional strategic gains like arable land, minerals, and ports are important, the geopolitical realities of the war mean these gains are increasingly irrelevant in the face of broader political and economic consequences.

Ultimately, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to result in significant losses for Russia, both in terms of resources and strategic objectives. The situation requires a reevaluation of Russia's long-term goals and strategic choices if it hopes to secure its future as a global power.