Unification Delayed: How a Later Germany Would Have Affected Global History
In 1870, Germany underwent a significant period of unification, which marked the beginning of its rise as a major European power. This article explores an alternate historical scenario in which Germany did not unify until the early 20th century, around the 1920s. By examining the potential consequences of this delay, we can gain insights into the possible trajectory of world history.
Germany as a Superpower
If Germany had delayed its unification until the early 20th century, it would emerge as a superpower with a significant impact on global affairs. In 1914, the unification scenario suggests a Germany that was stronger and more cohesive, with a territorial expanse comparable to its size before the post-World War I dismemberment.
Given Germany's current economic and technological prowess, imagine how formidable it would be if it retained its pre-1918 borders. The amalgamation of different German regions during unification created a powerful state with a unified strategy both domestically and internationally. If Germany had maintained this power, it would have shaped the 20th century in ways we can scarcely imagine.
The Opposition to German Unification
The main adversaries to German unification were Austria-Hungary and France. Prussia's victories over Austria-Hungary in 1866 and France in 1870 set the stage for German unification under Bismarck's leadership. However, if Bismarck had not pursued unification, two major German states might have emerged: Prussia and Bavaria, each leading a confederation of other German states.
The emergence of two German confederations would have significantly impacted Germany's international relations. After becoming Kaiser in 1890, Wilhelm II would not have possessed the same level of authority and influence to pursue a foreign policy that alienated Britain and Russia. This could have resulted in a less belligerent and more balanced international stance for Germany.
The Aftermath and the Outbreak of WWI
If Germany unified after 1900 but before 1930, with Kaiser Wilhelm II still on the throne, the same threatening and truculent foreign policy that characterized the pre-1914 period would have persisted. Germany would have continued to alienate Britain and Russia, creating a tense European political landscape.
The other great European powers, in response to this perceived threat, would have reacted similarly to their behavior in the late 1890s and early 1900s. Russia would have aligned with France, fearing German aggression. Britain, concerned about German expansion, would have sought to mend its relations with France and Russia by forming an alliance with them. Austria-Hungary, faced with the disintegration of its empire and the threat of Russian expansion, would have allied with Germany. Italy, influenced by the promises of colonial booty, would have sided with the alliance that offered the most benefits.
As a result, the outbreak of World War I would have been delayed, perhaps until after 1945, when the advent of nuclear weapons made such a conflict more dangerous and less likely to occur. This scenario suggests a different turn in European and global history, with significant repercussions in terms of colonial empires, international alliances, and the balance of power on the global stage.
Conclusion
The hypothetical delay of German unification until the early 20th century presents a compelling alternative history. It alters the course of global politics, particularly in Europe, leading to different international alliances and conflicts. While not definitive, this alternative scenario underscores the pivotal role Germany played in shaping the early 20th-century world and the far-reaching consequences of historical events.