Turkey’s Bilateral Diplomacy with Greece: A Complex EU Perspective

Why is Turkey pushing to downgrade its differences with Greece to a bilateral level? Can Turkey not face the European Union as a whole, considering that Greece and Cyprus are full members of this union?

The European Union (EU) is arguably one of the most powerful political unions globally, with a nominal second-largest economy, surpassing only the United States by approximately 5 trillion in GDP. However, despite its vast power, the EU often operates not as a unified bloc but as a collection of individual member states with their own objectives and interests. For Turkey, this fragmented approach is both a challenge and an opportunity.

The EU’s Fragmented Decision-Making

Countries like Spain, Italy, and Germany often "put a lot of water in their wine" when dealing with Turkish issues in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. Each nation prioritizes its interests, leading to a situation where the EU as a whole is not as cohesive as one might expect. This fragmentation makes it easier for Turkey to adopt a bilateral approach to its disputes with Greece, as it costs Turkey nothing while it places an additional diplomatic burden on Greece and Cyprus.

Official EU Stance on Unification

Despite the challenges, the official stance of the EU remains behind its two member states, Greece and Cyprus. The EU often addresses issues through the publication of two sources, one Greek and one Turkish, to ensure an unbiased presentation. However, this method does not change the underlying geopolitical reality that Turkey cannot face the EU as a whole.

Why Greece Should Not Stay Bilateral

Facing the EU as a whole is far more challenging than dealing with Greece alone. This is particularly true given the involvement of major EU powers like France, Germany, and possibly Italy. Recognizing Turkey’s strategic alliances, particularly with Russia, highlights the complexity of this issue.

Economic and Political Context

While the EU is a powerhouse in terms of its political union, single market, and aid, it is not a superpower in the defense or foreign policy spheres. The EU can make decisions and shape policies only if it has the required authority and if its member states agree, which is not always the case. This is precisely why countries like Turkey exploit these divisions to their advantage.

Contrary to popular belief, the EU is steadily moving towards full integration, far beyond just being a trading bloc. Efforts are underway to establish an EU armed forces and a common foreign policy. The United Kingdom's departure from the EU (Brexit) is seen as a blessing in disguise, accelerating the EU's journey towards a more federal structure and firmly refuting any claims of other EU member states following a misguided path.

Conclusion

While Turkey may attempt to downplay the importance of the EU, the reality is that Greece and Cyprus cannot rely solely on the EU to resolve their differences with Turkey. The EU, with its 27 member states, is a formidable entity, but it requires unity and agreement among its members to address complex geopolitical issues. Greece and Cyprus must navigate this intricate landscape with strategic alliances and diplomatic efforts to address their concerns.