Introduction
As the U.S. approaches its 2020 Presidential Election, the most crucial demographic groups are not the traditional ones like suburban women or the typical voting blocs based on race or religion. Instead, the key demographics to focus on include families of those who lost loved ones to COVID-19, those experiencing unemployment, and healthcare front-line workers. These groups have been largely overlooked in political debates and campaigns.
Understanding the Election Demographics
According to recent research from the German research company, Atlantik-Brücke, all racial, ethnic, and religious backgrounds, along with various educational levels, are voting for both Trump and Biden in significant numbers. It would be a mistaken assumption to determine a voter's choice based on their church attendance, skin color, or family origins. Political scientists are cautious about relying on such factors for predictions, as surveys conducted post-election may not fully reflect the true intentions of the electorate.
A report on Trump's job approval rating highlights a steady yet lower trend, which further complicates the picture. In 2016, white non-college Americans generally supported Republicans, while black, Asian, and Hispanic communities favored Democrats. However, these trends may have shifted in the context of ongoing societal changes, including the pandemic and social unrest.
Key Voter Demographics
Families of Those Who Died Due to COVID-19: In a global health crisis, the psychological and emotional impact on families of the deceased cannot be understated. These families are not only grieving the loss of loved ones but are also deeply affected by the broader societal changes. Their votes can swing the election significantly, given their emotional and financial hardships.
Unemployed Individuals: High unemployment rates have been a significant factor in the 2020 election. With many people facing job loss or reduced income, their economic concerns are paramount. Polling data shows a strong correlation between unemployment and political leanings. Given that the pandemic has disproportionately impacted certain industries and demographics, it is crucial for campaigns to address these economic hardships through policy solutions.
Healthcare Front-line Workers: These individuals have been on the forefront of the pandemic response, risking their own health and safety to save others. Their work is essential to society, yet often undervalued. During this election, these workers are likely to have strong opinions about the policies that support their work and the broader medical system. Campaigns targeting healthcare workers need to underscore the importance of their role and the need for comprehensive health policies.
Historical Context and Lessons
The 1992 U.S. Presidential Election offers a relevant historical example. During the AIDS epidemic, which peaked in the 1990s, the government's inaction led to public outcry. Despite the Democratic Party's preference, the American people voted for a candidate initially not favored by the party—the eventual winner, Bill Clinton. This scenario supports the idea that when the people of a country feel ignored and unheard, they are likely to support a change.
Despite the significant demographic shifts and the financially disheartened populations, it is essential to recognize the underlying historical context. Just as in 1992, the people's need for change, hope, and recognition of their silent suffering can drive their voting choices.
Conclusion
The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election is a complex tapestry of shifting demographics, with families impacted by the pandemic, the unemployed, and healthcare workers taking center stage. Campaigns should focus on these groups to capture the margin of victory. While these demographics are often overlooked, they represent the silent majority that could tip the scales in this critical election.