The Implications of Brexit on Northern Ireland and Scotland: No Reason for Convincing

Boris Johnson's task of convincing Northern Ireland and Scotland to support Brexit is unnecessary. He does not need their support for a smooth Brexit process.

Key Points Explained

Key Question: Why would Boris Johnson need to convince Northern Ireland and Scotland to support Brexit?

Here are the facts: Boris Johnson has a majority in the UK Parliament, with only six Scottish MPs and none from Northern Ireland supporting him. This means the UK can proceed with Brexit without their consent, as opposed to the European Union, which requires the consensus of all member states for any significant change.

Why He Doesn't Need Their Support

There is no need for Johnson to persuade either region. The Brexit referendum was held, and the result is now clear. Scotland and Northern Ireland must accept and support the UK leaving the EU. Over time, 'reainers' (those who supported remaining in the EU) will have to accept the UK's new status.

Northern Ireland

Brexit will mean Northern Ireland being severed from the rest of the UK. This outcome is acceptable to most of Johnson's supporters, as long as it achieves their goals. The customs barrier, while awkward, is just the first step in a potential path toward Irish reunification, or it could spur quicker reunification.

Scotland

Johnson can ignore Scotland for as long as possible. As only 9% of the UK population lives there, Scotland must follow the rules set by the 'elected' government unless the Scottish government and its people decide to trigger a new independence referendum.

Devolved Assemblies and the Rejection of Brexit

The current situation is also complicated by the UK’s devolved settlement. Northern Ireland and Scotland have their own devolved assemblies and legislatures. However, voter opposition to Brexit has never been officially recognized by the UK government.

The Northern Ireland specific withdrawal agreement requires the region to remain in aspects of the EU’s trading system, a deal that has not been offered to Scotland. This differential treatment between the regions highlights the ongoing challenges in the UK's devolved settlement.

Future Prospects

In the coming years, Brexit's impact on the UK's devolved settlement will continue to be a significant part of domestic politics. A possible independence referendum in Scotland is likely to feature in the 2021 Scottish parliamentary elections, and an Irish border poll in Northern Ireland is equally possible. Both scenarios could lead to Ireland uniting or Northern Ireland separating from the UK.

From an objective standpoint, an Irish border poll seems more likely to happen in the near future. Northern Ireland's voters and political parties have consistently rejected Boris Johnson's Brexit deal. Thus, an Irish border poll could provide the necessary impetus for Irish reunification.

Ultimately, the UK government does not need to convince Northern Ireland and Scotland to support Brexit. The referendum results are clear, and Scotland and Northern Ireland will need to adapt to the new reality.