The Impact of a Hard Border on Northern Ireland After Brexit and Its Potential for Conflict
Since Brexit, the prospect of a hard border between Northern Ireland (a part of the United Kingdom) and the Republic of Ireland (an EU member) has raised significant concerns. This article explores the historical context, potential political tensions, community sentiments, and current situation surrounding the possibility of a resurgence of conflict.
Historical Context
The history of Northern Ireland is fraught with conflict and tension, often referred to as the 'Troubles.' This period, which lasted from the late 1960s to the late 1990s, was marked by violent political and sectarian divisions. The Irish Republican Army (IRA) and loyalist paramilitary groups, such as the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF), led to a cycle of violence that only came to an end with the Belfast Agreement (or Good Friday Agreement) in 1998.
Brexit Impact
The decision to leave the European Union (EU) by the United Kingdom raised concerns about the potential for a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. A hard border could undermine the economic and social interconnections that have developed since the peace agreement was signed. Such a border could re-ignite tensions and increased division within communities.
Political Tensions
Political parties in Northern Ireland have differing views on Brexit and its implications. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and other unionist parties generally support Brexit, while nationalist parties, such as Sinn Féin, are concerned about the potential for increased division and a return to the harmful practices of the past. These contrasting views have led to significant political tensions and challenges in implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol, which was designed to prevent a hard border by maintaining alignment with certain EU regulations.
Community Sentiment
While many people in Northern Ireland desire peace and stability, there are still underlying tensions and divisions within communities. A hard border could exacerbate these tensions, particularly among those who feel their identity and rights are threatened. The recent dismissal of two Orange Order members from their jobs for mocking the daughters of a GAA coach, which sparked an anti-sectarian backlash, highlights the ongoing struggles against sectarian and bigoted behavior.
Current Situation
As of August 2023, the situation remains delicate. The Northern Ireland Protocol has faced significant political challenges and opposition, particularly from unionist groups. However, the hardline nature of these groups is decreasing. Many of the hardcore loyalists are either dead or too old to be active. Furthermore, the vast majority of jobs that were once monopolized by loyalists are no longer existent, and the hard-core loyalist organizations are facing significant challenges.
Technological advancements have also made it much harder for hardline groups to operate undetected. Anti-terror units have advanced tools to monitor suspects, and funding and weapon sources are increasingly scarce. The PSNI (Police Service of Northern Ireland) and the British Army have intervened multiple times against loyalist riot lines, further reducing the likelihood of significant support for these groups.
Risk of Violence
While the majority of people in Northern Ireland desire peace, fringe groups that opposed the peace process and those who feel their political goals are being undermined by Brexit might still pose a risk. However, these risks are localized and can be dealt with effectively by government and security forces.
Republican dissidents are also heavily compromised by informers, and many former terrorists have become involved in drug-dealing or gang behavior, alienating them from their traditional support. Although some Republican dissidents still exist, the likelihood of widespread unrest has significantly lowered since 2018, as most new IRA members are involved in drug dealing and are heavily monitored.
In summary, while the prospect of a hard border could increase tensions and the risk of violence, a full-scale resurgence of conflict is unlikely. The current situation can be managed, and armed conflict, if it occurs, is more likely to be localized and swiftly resolved with government intervention.