The Impact of Unpopular Tax Reform on GOP in 2018 Midterm Elections

Time will only tell whether passing an unpopular tax reform will help the GOP in the 2018 mid-term elections. Opposing parties will both have their share of criticisms, with the Democrats against anything the Republicans do and vice versa. However, give it a chance, and it may be observed that the tax reform could indeed benefit the U.S. economy and the broader electorate. Nevertheless, the public's short memory and the recent economic policies' perceived impact on the poorest and in poorest health Americans cannot be ignored.

Unpopular Tax Reform and Its Impact on GOP

One of the main criticisms of the recently passed tax reform is that it provides a significant break for the ultra-rich, who have made a substantial amount of money and don't feel the need to donate a large portion of it to the government. While some argue that the rich should pay a larger tax, the reality is that people who make over a million dollars a year often see their taxes lowered under the new reform. For them, keeping more of their hard-earned money is a priority, and they may not be convinced to pay more simply because it's for a good cause.

The public's memory can be rather short, and this could potentially work to the Republicans' advantage. As long as the issue remains in the public eye or people stay informed, the Republicans will need to be wary. However, the Democrats have their work cut out for them in learning to effectively oppose the Republicans if they hope to sway public opinion.

Will the Tax Bill Hurt or Help the GOP in 2018 Midterm Elections?

Some may argue that the passage of the tax bill will hurt the GOP in 2018, but they have likely already written off the mid-term elections—possibly even the 2020 elections as well. If that is the case, they may as well do whatever they can to maximize their gains before leaving office. Relying on the short-term memory of voters, just like President Bush Jr.'s administration, which had historically low approval rates in 2008 but was re-elected by the voters two years later in 2010.

Benefits and Harms of the Tax Reform

While the tax bill may provide some short-term benefits with increased take-home pay for workers and the repeal of the health tax mandate, certain realities such as the limits on or loss of certain tax deductions will only be felt in the future. Some necessary governmental entitlements and services might be curtailed or eliminated, and the full extent of these measures will depend on the impact on the extra cash from tax cuts. The trickle-down effect of the tax bill is questionable, as economic growth is not solely dependent on the rich saving and investing their excess cash. Instead, it requires cash to flow through the broader economy, which may not happen with the current reforms.

Final Thoughts on 2018 Midterm Elections

The ultimate outcome of the 2018 mid-term elections will depend on the public's response and how this response manifests through the devaluing of the worker middle-class. As Marx predicted in Das Kapital, the worker middle-class has been systematically devalued, and this trend is now evident in the country least expected. As businesses use their tax cuts to buy back stock, improve automation, and reduce workforce, fewer jobs will be created. The tax reform's impact will be felt in the long term, and its full effects will be seen in the 2020 elections. The GOP will need to be prepared for the potential backlash and be open to alternative policies that could help the broader economy and the electorate.