The Impact of Foreign Aid on Ukraine’s Resistance Against Russia

The extent to which Ukraine could have resisted Russian invasion without foreign aid is a topic of significant debate. As long as Russia remains an aggressive and threatening nation, Ukraine will continue to receive outside support. However, the question remains: how long can Ukraine uphold its resistance under these circumstances?

The Role of Foreign Aid in Ukraine’s Match

Ukraine's resilience against the Russian invasion has been directly attributed to the support it has received from the international community. This aid has allowed Ukraine to maintain its economic and military resistance, turning the tide in its favor with a successful 14-month-long defense. If this aid were to cease, it would be entirely up to Russia to halt its invasion and withdraw. Nevertheless, this scenario brings forth the crucial question: how long can an underdog resist a larger, more aggressive adversary without external assistance?

Speculation on a hypothetical scenario

There is no doubt that foreign aid has been a crucial component in Ukraine’s ability to withstand the Russian invasion. Speculating on how long Ukraine could have lasted without such support is a moot point, as it did not happen. However, to understand the situation better, let us imagine what might have occurred if Ukraine had been left to fend for itself. In this scenario, the most likely outcome would be that Ukraine might have negotiated a peaceful settlement with Russia as early as March 2022, preventing the current conflict. Without external aid, Ukraine's economy and military would have faced significant challenges, leading to an unsustainable resistance by the end of 2022.

Assuming that Ukraine's economy was already on life support in December 2022 due to the lack of Western aid, an economic collapse would likely have been inevitable. Basic administrative, infrastructural, and transportation functions would have become inoperable, making it impossible to sustain a meaningful military resistance. The military itself would have struggled to function without the necessary supplies and equipment, rendering soldiers' skills virtually useless when their ammunition and supplies ran out.

What if there were no aid?

A month or two might be a more plausible estimate for how long Ukraine could have continued its resistance without foreign aid. Given the build-up of Ukrainian military capabilities since 2014, and the U.S. Military's contributions, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, the amount of arms and equipment would have been exhausted within a month or two. Ukraine’s ability to fight skillfully is commendable, yet combat effectiveness heavily relies on the availability of supplies and equipment. Without these resources, Ukraine's resistance would have become untenable.

Key Points to Consider

1. **Foreign Aid**: Ukrainian resistance has been bolstered by the consistent supply of weapons, ammunition, and financial aid from Western nations. If this support were removed, Ukraine would struggle to sustain its operations.

2. **Economic Resilience**: The Ukrainian economy has been heavily reliant on foreign aid to maintain its function. An economic collapse without continuous support would have been certain by the end of 2022, making any form of meaningful resistance unsustainable.

3. **Invasive Aggression**: The aggressiveness of Russia has kept Ukraine on its toes, necessitating continuous support to counter this threat. If Russia were to halt its invasion, the conflict would have ended earlier, potentially leading to a quicker resolution and less loss of life.

Conclusion

While Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and skill in its resistance against Russia, the critical factor in its ability to continue fighting has been the support it has received from the international community. The scenario of Ukraine potentially lasting several months without such support is speculative and unlikely given the prolonged and intense nature of the conflict. The invasion has been ongoing for over a year, emphasizing the importance of continued aid and diplomatic efforts to bring about a peaceful resolution.