The Future of Europe: A Vision for the 22nd Century

Taken from the perspectives of today's global trends, this article explores the potential future of Europe in the 22nd century. The geopolitical landscape, economic changes, and social dynamics will be key factors shaping the continent's future.

Geopolitical Fragmentation and the Shifting Power Centers of Europe

The anticipated future of Europe involves a significant shift in power dynamics. The European Union (EU) is likely to face fragmentation into several smaller regional blocs. This fracturing can be attributed to economic and social disparities, primarily between the Western European nations and the Central European states.

Western European Decline and Economic Shift

Western European cradle-to-grave socialist states are expected to experience economic decline, as they continue importing uncompetitive and unproductive immigrants from third-world countries. These immigrants, despite immigration, do not assimilate into the host societies. Instead, they often form parallel communities and receive government benefits, a trend that is unsustainable over multiple generations. This socio-economic strain is likely to push Western European powers toward economic and political decline.

Central European Ascendancy

In stark contrast, Central European nations are expected to experience accelerated growth and development. Countries like Czechia, which now has a GDP per capita matching Portugal, will continue to invest in their native populations and technological advancements. This trend is indicative of a broader shift in economic power from the West to the center of Europe.

Economic and Financial Dynamics

While the European continent may remain geographically unchanged, the economic landscape is likely to undergo significant transformation. The USA and UK, through their global economic influence, may further expand their reach worldwide, potentially leveraging international currencies. In the future, it is possible that Europe will lose prominence in the global economy, with the USA and UK assuming a more dominant role.

The Rise and Fall of the British Empire

The United Kingdom, despite its current membership and criticism of the EU, is predicted to maintain its global influence. Scotland, aware of the decline in its natural resources, may choose to stay within the UK, highlighting the internal complexities of the United Kingdom's future.

Geopolitical Conflicts and Crises

The 22nd century will be marked by several geopolitical conflicts and crises, including:

Russian Expansion

Russia may seek to annex Belarus by creating a "confederation," a move that aims to mask the annexation under the guise of international agreements. Additionally, Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine may take control of cities like Mariopol and Crimea, further destabilizing the region.

Eastern European Reunifications and Unions

Romania and Moldova are likely to reunite, while Transnistria, gaining international recognition, will achieve a degree of independence. Montenegro and North Macedonia will join the EU, while Albania will also enter, potentially paving the way for Turkey's exclusion from the union. Turkey, recognizing the economic and political union in the East as a potential threat, may flirt with the Eurasian Economic Union but decline membership due to fears of becoming a pawn in Russia's geopolitical chess game.

Challenges and Migrations

Continued repression in Turkey is likely to lead to a call for its expulsion from NATO. This request, while refused by the United States, will lead to a reluctant compliance by the rest of the NATO member states. Another reunification referendum in Cyprus may fail, leading to Western powers recognizing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), though some member states like Spain may refuse to do so due to domestic reasons.

Repressive Regimes and Expulsions

Serbia, after annexing Republika Srpska with Russian support, faces sanctions from the EU. Instead, it turns to the Eurasian Economic Union, which becomes more like the EU but lacks the democratic and human rights standards. Belgium further splits, leading to the Netherlands becoming Flanders, Wallonia uniting with France, Eupen joining Germany, and Luxembourg rejoining the Grand Duchy.

Monarchies and Currency Unions

Bulgaria and Romania hold successful referendums on restoring their monarchies, signaling a shift in political structures. San Marino, Monaco, and Andorra may also join the EU through referendums, with Andorra being the only one to complete the process. Bulgaria, Romania, North Macedonia, Croatia, and Poland, along with Montenegro, join the eurozone, reflecting a strong commitment to European economic integration.