The Discrepancy Between Keynesian Vision and Modern Reality: Work and Leisure in the 21st Century
John Maynard Keynes, a renowned British economist, predicted that by 2030 our standard of living would be so high that people would work no more than 15 hours a week. He envisioned a time when leisure, culture, and enjoyment would take precedence over consumption. This prediction was based on the assumption that people would opt for a life of relaxation and cultural fulfillment over material pursuits. However, whether Keynesian vision holds true today is questionable, for several reasons.
The Evolution of Work Ethic and Consumer Behavior
The assumption that people would choose relaxation, culture, and meaningful pursuits over consumption is not without foundation, but it may be too optimistic in the current context. As advancements in technology and increasing availability of modern conveniences have made life more comfortable, people often choose to work longer hours to afford these luxuries. For example, big screen TVs, smartphones, home computers, internet access, recliners, and multiple cars have become the norm. This suggests that even when people have the means to support their basic needs, they are inclined to work for additional income to enjoy modern conveniences and luxuries.
The F.I.R.E. Movement: A Testing Ground for Keynesian Predictions
One of the most compelling modern examples that challenge Keynes's vision is the F.I.R.E. (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement. This movement aims to reach financial independence and retire early by saving and investing aggressively. According to the F.I.R.E. movement, many people realize that they can live comfortably on a fraction of their income and choose to work less. However, the reality often reveals various challenges, such as identity issues, boredom, and the need for purpose and structure.
Some individuals find that they do not know what to do with their newfound time and may experience a sense of emptiness or boredom. This phenomenon suggests that for many, work provides more than just financial stability; it also offers a sense of identity, purpose, and social structure. Work is not merely a means to an end but a source of enjoyment and meaning for some individuals.
Deflation, Inflation, and the Free Market
In Keynesian economics, deflation is often seen as a “bad” phenomenon that reduces overall demand, potentially leading to a zero-sum game where savings in one area are not offset by increased spending in another. However, critical thinkers will recognize that deflation can also have positive effects, such as allowing people to buy more with less. When people do not purchase goods, the market adjusts, and goods become more affordable over time. Once deflation is harnessed by consumers, the market adapts to this behavior, and deflation can be a stabilizing force rather than a problematic one.
On the other hand, inflation can disrupt this delicate balance. Inflation ruins the savings aspect of deflation, making it difficult for individuals to buy more with less when prices rise over time. Therefore, it is important not to manipulate the free market to achieve deflationary conditions, as people are more likely to fear and resist changes they do not understand.
Keynesian Economics and Its Relevance in the United States and Beyond
Keynes’s vision may have been more applicable to a different type of society than the one existing in the United States today. However, the fundamental principles of Keynesian economics, such as the importance of leisure and the balance between work and consumption, likely hold true in other 1st world countries as well. Americans, being human beings like others, find fulfillment in various aspects of life, including work, culture, and relaxation.
In conclusion, while Keynes's prediction of a future where leisure and culture are prioritized over consumption might seem appealing on paper, it is not without challenges in modern society. The F.I.R.E. movement provides a window into this reality, revealing diverse personal experiences and challenges that individuals face as they navigate the modern work-life balance. The ongoing evolution of our work ethic and consumer behavior demonstrates that the relationship between work and leisure remains complex and multifaceted.