Should Putin Feel Threatened by EU Expansion Towards Russia’s Borders?

In the complex arena of international geopolitics, the decision of EU expansion towards the Russian borders has left President Putin in a precarious position. While the expansion of the European Union (EU) symbolizes a push towards greater integration and cooperation in Europe, it poses significant geopolitical challenges for Russia. Putin must navigate between external threats and internal pressures, particularly regarding nuclear deterrence and NATO's advance.

The EU as a Border Union

The expansion of the EU towards Russia's borders has fundamentally altered the landscape of international relations. The EU operates as a toll union, where the removal of internal border controls has necessitated stringent border control measures outside its territory. This scenario presents a significant disadvantage for Russia, mirroring the challenges faced by the UK after Brexit. Historically, Russia had more favorable toll agreements with individual countries like Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania, which have now been subsumed under the new EU framework.

Visa Politics

Visa policies have also been a crucial aspect of EU expansion. Before the expansion, Russians enjoyed visa-free travel to many central and south-European countries like Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Poland. Now, the EU's rigid visa policies apply uniformly to all member states, including Russia. This policy shift has severely limited travelers' ability to move freely within the region, impacting both business and personal visits.

NATO and Anti-Russia Alliances

The expansion of the EU into Russia's neighboring regions inevitably brings NATO with it, forming a military alliance that is antagonistic towards Russia. NATO, with its anti-Russian military rhetoric, has been creeping closer to Russia's borders, a move that Putin finds both unsettling and threatening. The historical significance of such expansion cannot be ignored, as it echoes the promises broken by Western leaders, particularly those made during the Gorbachev era, which guaranteed Russia's security in exchange for the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Internal Challenges and Strategic Dilemmas

For Putin, the threats posed by EU expansion go beyond the military and include internal political challenges. The root of Russian distrust and antipathy towards the West remains deeply entrenched in centuries of conflict and shared history. Western insistence on Western-style democracy and freedoms, which have been historically seen as a threat to Russian sovereignty, does nothing to assuage these feelings. The Russian people's view of the West, shaped by figures like the first Czars who harshly opposed Western influence, means that Putin must exhibit strength and assertiveness to maintain credibility.

The continued expansion of the EU and the potential engulfment of Ukraine, a critical client state for Russia, could leave Putin looking weak and vulnerable at home. With no significant buffer states between Russia and the EU, any further advances could erode Putin's domestic support and embolden internal critics. Putin's stance that "no means no" towards further NATO expansion is not just a diplomatic deterrent but a strategic necessity to protect Russia's borders and sovereignty.

Conclusion

While the military threat posed by NATO is significant, the real danger for Putin lies in the perception of weakness and vulnerability. The expansion of the EU and NATO towards Russia's borders necessitates a nuanced strategy from Putin to maintain control both externally and internally. The interplay between geopolitical ambitions and internal political realities will continue to shape Putin's approach to Russia's future.