What Realistically Happens if Putin Turns Off the Gas to Europe Tomorrow?
Europe, in the face of such a drastic measure, will partly replace Russian gas with imports from other suppliers and partly with alternative energy sources. Looking two years ahead, this transition will likely be largely forgotten. However, Russia would burn the gas if there is no viable market left. This article delves into the broader implications and offers a critical perspective on how actions by nations like Germany could be pivotal in resolving or exacerbating the situation.
Insufficient Energy Supply, Reduced Income, and Germany's Role
In scenario A where Russia discontinues gas supply, Europe will struggle with an insufficient energy supply. Russia’s income would significantly diminish, as the continent ceases purchasing this crucial resource. This scenario highlights a concerning economic impact on Russia and the precarious position of European energy reliance.
From a purely practical standpoint, Germany stands out as a notable player. It has an extraordinary 45 million euros per day of Russian fossil fuels in its energy mix. This substantial dependence on Russian gas, oil, and coal exceeds that of any other EU country. Germany’s aggressive consumption accentuates the energy crisis, contributing to global instability.
The disconnect between Germany's wealth and its environmental policies is stark. Despite achieving some of the lowest green energy targets in the EU, Germany's wealth generated from cheap, polluting fossil fuels is vast. If Putin indeed ceased Russian gas, Germany's economy and environmental goals would face a significant upheaval. The cessation of income from Russian gas could force Germany to invest more in green alternatives, thus reshaping its energy strategy.
Case Study: The Gas Turn-off Incident in Denmark
A specific incident occurred in Denmark, illustrating how such a gas cutoff would likely play out in another European country. The Danish power company in question joined in the "no Russian gas" movement by refusing to pay in Rubles, despite there being no sanctions against gas payments. The consequences included defaulting on contracts with Gazprom, allowing the company to publicly declare its decision not to do business with Russia.
While Russia reduced gas flows to North Germany by 80% even after paying in rubles, no immediate disruption was felt. Existing strategic reserves ensured that there was no immediate impact on industrial activities, and the situation was more manageable than anticipated. However, the certainty of gas supply disruption looms for future winters, particularly considering that Russia has stated it will resume gas deliveries, but there's no concrete evidence to support this claim.
Germany's Financial and Environmental Impact
Germany alone, with its massive consumption of Russian fossil fuels, bears significant responsibility for the current energy crisis. While the EU as a whole faces challenges, Germany's dependence on Russian energy exacerbates the issue. On a per capita basis, Denmark has by far the highest support for Ukraine among EU countries, showcasing a strong commitment to a green and renewable energy future.
Latvia, a smaller Baltic nation, is a beacon of green initiative. It excels in green energy practices, with a wealth commitment to Ukraine equivalent to 82 euros per 100 euros, a significant contrast to Germany's minimal contribution of under 1 euro. Germany, along with France and Italy, fails to meet its green energy targets, despite its financial wealth and the billions it invests in Russian fossil fuels.
Germany's ongoing consumption of Russian fossil fuels exposes a gap between its financial capabilities and environmental policies. The cessation of Russian gas would force Germany, Europe's largest economy, to confront a stark reality. It would either accelerate its green energy transition or face economic and environmental consequences. In light of this, Germany's geopolitical and environmental decisions are crucial in determining Europe's energy security and environmental future.