Introduction

In the upcoming five-year governance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will face a myriad of political and economic challenges. As the Indian economy continues to grow, it is imperative to address key issues that affect the nation's economic and social fabric. This article delves into the political and economic challenges anticipated for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tenure.

Economic Challenges

Oil Imports and Domestic Oil Prices

Global economic trends and oil prices have a significant impact on India's economy. Currently, international oil prices are low, but this trend is expected to reverse as global demand increases. This has implications for India, which is heavily dependent on oil imports. The automobile sector, which is a significant contributor to India's economy, is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. A rise in oil prices could lead to higher import costs and inflation, thereby affecting the nation's trade deficit significantly.

Employment and Productivity

The Indian labor market faces challenges, such as slow employment growth and a preference for government jobs. A rising youth population further exacerbates this issue, as job creation is not keeping pace with the growing workforce. This trend is likely to continue, as consumption and investment are also slow. On the production side, the situation is not rosy, with agriculture needing self-sufficiency and subsidies. The government's steps to increase its Catholic deficit (CAD) through heavy dividends from RBI and other public companies have been criticized for lacking productivity gains.

Political Challenges

Reservation Policy

One of the most significant political challenges for Prime Minister Modi in the upcoming years will be the extension of reservation policies. Reservation for reserved classes will expire by 2020, and it is expected that the opposition will exert pressure on the BJP to extend this policy. The Congress party will likely leverage pro-SC/ST groups to demand an extension, while pro-general and Hindu groups will oppose it. It is expected that the BJP will consider revising the reservation policy instead of extending it indefinitely, possibly to only five years.

Kashmir and Human Rights

The resolution of the Kashmir issue remains a critical challenge for the Modi government. Its objective to remove Article 35A by the end of the year is a positive step. However, Article 370's fate is uncertain, necessitating a majority in the Rajya Sabha, which may not be achieved before 2022. The removal or attempt to remove Article 35A could further escalate tensions in the region. Despite these challenges, it is anticipated that the BJP will handle the Kashmir issue with diplomatic and firm measures.

Unemployment and Muslim Demands

Unemployment is a critical issue and is likely to be used as a political tool by the opposition. Despite the government's efforts to address this, the vast population and slow economic growth make it difficult to fully resolve this problem. Additionally, the Hindu community's high demands on issues such as a Uniform Civil Code and population control are expected to be a challenge. While these demands have been unsatisfied since India's independence, the BJP must address these issues to maintain the support of this community.

Political Instability and Opposition Tactics

The opposition will likely engage in negative campaigning, focusing on conflicts and seeking to portray the BJP as a threat. Chief among these is the fear of a political crisis, where opposition leaders will support anti-national activities to put pressure on Prime Minister Modi to be more accommodating. They may even directly or indirectly support anti-national activities and groups. As the government embarks on critical reforms like the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Uniform Civil Code, these groups could launch anti-national activities to destabilize the government.

Conclusion

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's next five-year term presents numerous challenges, both in terms of the economy and politics. Addressing these challenges will require robust policies and a strong leadership approach. While the road ahead may be fraught with difficulties, the BJP must stay focused on long-term goals and address the pressing issues facing the nation.