Lebanon's Path to Peace with Israel: Possibilities and Challenges in 2021
As 2021 approaches, the question of whether Lebanon and Israel will finally reach a peace deal remains uncertain. It appears unlikely amid the geopolitical landscape, especially without a significant shift in regional dynamics.
Geopoliticalstacles and Proxies
The immediate obstacle lies in the stable regime of Iran, a key player in supporting proxies such as Hezbollah. Unless there is a dramatic change in the Iranian regime, backed by divine intervention, the atmosphere for a peace deal remains bleak. This reliance on regional powers has historically prevented such agreements.
Potential for Change in Lebanon
Despite the current tough stance, there is reason to believe that Lebanon may not be the last to sign a peace treaty with Israel. Lebanon is often ahead in such developments, thanks to a diverse population and potential for economic benefits. A peace agreement could indeed be more of a mutual non-aggression pact, rather than a full-fledged peace treaty with travel arrangements included.
Ending Regional Tensions
Many Lebanese fear the potential for conflict, particularly with Hezbollah. The fear of a cyclical war is prevalent, and a peace treaty could alleviate this tension. Some argue that it would be 'giving Israel a victory,' but that viewpoint overlooks the reality of persistent fear and unrest. A treaty would quell these anxieties and contribute positively to the region's stability.
Economic Implications
A peace treaty could have substantial economic benefits for Lebanon. Historically, the road connecting Lebanon to the Arab world has been blocked due to ongoing conflicts. A treaty could facilitate this connection, potentially spurring economic growth in Lebanon. This connection was severed since the Assad regime began, and a peace agreement could reignite this vital economic route.
Shifting Dynamics and Regional Stability
The conflict with Israel is deeply intertwined with broader regional dynamics, particularly the destabilizing influence of Iran. Funding of dictators, involvement in proxy wars, and sectarian divisions in Lebanon—factors driven by Iran—have exacerbated regional instability. A peace agreement with Israel could address these concerns, reducing Iranian influence and fostering a more stable environment in the Middle East.
Challenges and Unfavorable Conditions
Despite these potential benefits, Lebanon's path to peace with Israel remains fraught with challenges. Historical grievances, such as Israeli invasions and the perceived lack of intervention during the Lebanese civil war, continue to fuel animosity. Additionally, the rise and influence of Hezbollah, a group unwilling to cooperate with Israel, serve as a significant barrier to any agreement. The stated goal of Hezbollah to defeat Israel, coupled with its funding by Iran, undermines the possibility of a peace treaty in the near future.
In conclusion, while the path to peace between Lebanon and Israel seems uncertain in 2021, ongoing geopolitical shifts may offer new opportunities. A shift in regional dynamics, particularly regarding Iran and Hezbollah, could pave the way for positive developments that benefit both nations and the broader Middle East.