Lebanon: A Country Facing Transformation, Not Collapse
Lebanon is not an imminent total collapse, but a country undergoing an unprecedented political crisis that many nations have faced throughout history. Efforts are underway to address these challenges.
Lebanon Beyond Its Political Crisis
While Lebanon has long been fracturing into a mutually destructive and corrupt governance framework, characterized by the dominant presence of Hezbollah, a terrorist army supported by Iran, the idea of it collapsing is too simplistic. The collapse of Lebanon as a cohesive and functional state occurred long ago, replaced by a structure where the powerful are largely disconnected from the general populace. This reality has been exacerbated by sectarian tensions and Iranian influence.
A Failed Country in the Making
Lebanon can be classified as a failed country in terms of governance and social structure. The current economic situation is dire, with citizens fleeing from the country due to a lack of stability. The religious divisions among the three major sects in Lebanon are acute, and Hezbollah's influence undermines national unity. On a scale of 1 to 10 for socio-economic success, Lebanon scores a 2 as a result of this complex interplay of factors.
Historical Context and Potential for Transformation
Despite the challenges, Lebanon has a rich history that stretches back to Biblical times. Throughout its many trials, Lebanon has managed to endure and, interestingly, its citizens still have dreams of what Lebanon could and should be. The infusion of Islamic pluralism and US influence, though often destructive, has also precipitated a period of renewed consciousness and potential for change.
The city of Beirut, once a vibrant and cosmopolitan hub, remains a significant global destination. According to Travel Leisure Magazine, Beirut ranks 15th among the top world cities, signifying its potential for revival and improvement.
U.S. Involvement and Future Projections
History also includes the tragic loss of United States Marines during their operations in Lebanon, a testament to the volatile geopolitical environment. The current government's inability to combat the terrorist threat from Hezbollah, coupled with Iran's financial and military backing, has heightened the urgency for change.
The political system, deeply entrenched along sectarian lines, has resulted in a situation where a small elite controls approximately 99% of the economy. This enriches a minority at the expense of the majority and fuels corruption. The economic collapse rooted in these dynamics has led to a financial crisis for the political elite as well. The coming months may bring either a full-scale revolt from the people or the entry of external powers to stabilize the situation, but Lebanon is not on the brink of full collapse.
The nature of the changes will be transformative, not a rapid and total dissolution of the country as some might fear. Instead, the window of opportunity for positive change has never been wider. The future of Lebanon lies not in its past, but in the resilience and determination of its people and the potential for new, pluralistic governance.