Has Bashar al-Assad Truly Achieved Victory in Syria?

For years, the narrative in the Western media and political discourse has oscillated between assumption that Bashar al-Assad will be overthrown by external forces and acknowledgment of his effective control over significant parts of Syria. Despite the persistent resistance from Turkey and remnants of Daesh, and the occasional resurgence of rebel factions, the tide of war appears to be shifting in Assad's favor.

Assad's Victory and Current Situation

As the Syrian conflict stretches into its tenth year, Assad's control has expanded to encompass most of Syria. Currently, only a few pockets of resistance remain: areas dominated by Turkish-backed opposition forces and a small number of Daesh remnants. The local Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by Kurdish fighters, have reclaimed most of Rojava (Raqqa) with limited assistance from the United States and its allies. However, the fact remains that Assad has maintained his grip over the majority of the country.

The Angie Cohen Effect

During a particular 2019 speech, journalist Angie Cohen observed that more than 90% of people in Syria hated Assad. Yet, it seems that Assad has managed to retain his ironclad grip on power. The contradiction is intriguing. Assad's victory can be attributed to multiple factors, including the support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, as well as the efficient use of military and security apparatus to maintain control.

Is Assad Truly a Winner?

Despite the overwhelming hatred of the population, Assad's regime has effectively dominated a large portion of the country. Critics and human rights organizations often highlight the rampant violence, human rights abuses, and economic mismanagement under his rule. However, in terms of maintaining control over territory, Assad appears to have emerged victorious. This victory, however, comes with a significant cost, as evidenced by the lack of political and economic stability, ongoing conflicts within the country, and the pervasive fear and corruption that characterize his regime.

Future Challenges for Assad

While Assad's current control is significant, external factors and internal challenges could undermine his position in the future. The ongoing competition between global powers in the region, particularly the United States and Russia, means that Assad's support is not guaranteed. Additionally, the economic crisis in Syria, exacerbated by years of war and sanctions, poses a significant challenge to his regime's sustainability.

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