Introduction

The Great Britain and its economy have been at the heart of global discussions since the Brexit referendum. While the immediate impact of Brexit is now visible, the long-term effects, particularly on the United Kingdom's GDP in 2030, remain subject to debate and speculation. This article explores two different scenarios regarding the UK's GDP in 2030, with and without Brexit, as well as the potential impact of an EU collapse.

Understanding the Economic Impact of Brexit

Many factors contribute to the economic outlook for the UK, and largely, a significant portion of this discussion revolves around the implications of Brexit. However, not all agree with the narrative painted by those proponents of leaving the EU. For instance, one individual shared their perspective that, after Brexit, they are free and that their kids should "f**k off," citing their current political situation with the UK.

It is important to remember, however, that no matter one's stance on Brexit, predicting the economy 10 to 15 years into the future is inherently speculative. As noted by many economists, the British economy, like any other, is complex and influenced by a wide range of variables.

Analysing GDP Growth Without Brexit

A realistic approach to evaluating the UK's economic trajectory involves comparing the current GDP growth trends with those of other major EU economies. By doing so, one can attempt to backtrack and estimate how the UK would have performed absent Brexit. According to Joseph Stiglitz's work, comparing the economic performance of the Eurozone with countries that stayed out of the Euro reveals that the creation of the Euro has impeded the economic growth of the Eurozone as a whole.

This method, while not perfect, provides a retrospective view of how the UK could have fared in the absence of Brexit. By comparing actual growth rates, economists and policymakers can assess whether the decision to leave the EU was economically beneficial or not. However, it's crucial to recognize that economic forecasting itself is an inherently uncertain enterprise. Factors such as future political decisions and global economic conditions can significantly alter the course of an economy.

Economic Modelling and Forecasting

Economic modelling and forecasting techniques have been widely used to estimate the impact of Brexit. However, these models come with inherent limitations, primarily due to the complexity of predicting long-term economic outcomes. In earlier parts of my career, I engaged extensively in economic modelling and forecasting. One of the key challenges is isolating the effects of Brexit from other factors that influence the economy.

While economic models can provide estimates of how trade barriers and other factors might impact GDP, they struggle to account for the human feedback loop—the changes in behavior and policies of political leaders in response to Brexit. These economic policy decisions, often shaped by new political realities, can have a profound impact on long-term economic outcomes.

The problem with long-term economic forecasts is that they often overlook the unpredictable nature of these policy decisions. As I mentioned in a previous answer, some economic forecasters omit these variables entirely because they are difficult to predict and quantify. This omission means that long-term forecasts should be viewed with significant skepticism.

Policy Decisions and Economic Growth

Economists agree that policy decisions are one of the most significant determinants of long-term economic growth. The difficulty lies in predicting what these decisions will be and quantifying their impact. We simply cannot foresee exactly what future governments will do, nor can we precisely measure the effects of their actions.

Instead, supporters of Brexit emphasize that leaving the EU allows policymakers to make decisions that align more closely with the UK's interests. While they acknowledge the difficulty in quantifying these benefits, they still argue that the potential advantages outweigh the uncertainties.

In conclusion, while we lack a crystal ball to predict the exact path of the UK's economy in 2030, by examining growth trends both with and without Brexit, and considering the impact of potential EU collapse, we can gain valuable insights. It is essential to approach these forecasts with a critical and cautious mindset, acknowledging the limitations and uncertainties inherent in long-term economic predictions.