Will Congress Find Something the IRS Missed in Trump's Taxes?

It is highly probable that outside auditors will uncover financial errors and inconsistencies that the IRS might have overlooked in President Trump's tax returns. This is a view shared by many experts in the field, and even Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, testified that they were never intended to be scrutinized by the public.

Political Motives and Public Scrutiny

Congress, it is widely believed, is primarily driven by political motives towards the 2020 election. As a real estate developer, Trump often pays a low tax rate, which has been under constant media scrutiny. For instance, Mitt Romney’s low tax rate of 13% received considerable media attention, highlighting the need for transparency and scrutiny.

Legitimate Reasons for Congressional Review

While it’s often claimed that errors are enough to spark an investigation, there are several legitimate reasons for Congress to delve deeper into Trump's tax returns:

1. Charitable Foundation Fraud: The president's charitable foundation has already been found guilty of fraud and ordered to be dissolved. Congress may want to scrutinize this further to tighten laws and oversight regarding the use of charities for money laundering.

2. Aggressive Tax Avoidance Strategies: The president and his family used various tax avoidance methods that are likely illegal or at least aggressive. The last year's tax bill tightened some loopholes, but the real estate loopholes exploited by the Trump family remain open. Understanding how these strategies work is crucial for Congress to effectively close them.

3. Constitutional and Ethical Concerns: The IRS focuses on tax payment, not the sources of income. Congress, on the other hand, is interested in the sources of income, which have implications for Constitutional issues like receiving emoluments and other impeachable offenses such as bribery, foreign influence, and high crimes and misdemeanors.

Possible Scenarios and Motivations for Non-Disclosure

Given the efforts made by Trump to obscure his tax records, it’s likely that Congress will find something “something up.” Here are several potential scenarios and motivations for Trump not releasing his tax returns:

1. Political Strategy: There is no legal mandate requiring Trump to release his tax returns. If he did, the Democratic party would likely pounce on them, finding a “tongue-in-cheek” expert to claim that Trump has cheated, blaming the IRS for overlooking it.

2. Revealing Financial Immiseration: Releasing his tax returns could expose that Trump might not be as wealthy as portrayed. This could undermine his financial credibility and overall image, which is a risk he is trying to avoid.

3. Protection of Competitive Advantages: Public records of Trump’s financial affairs could provide competitors with valuable insights into his revenue streams and potential business strategies. This information could give them a competitive edge they wouldn’t normally have access to.

4. Legal Vulnerability: Publicly accessible tax records could reveal private information that could be used against him in legal battles, opening up potential new liabilities and legal challenges that Trump seeks to avoid.