Is There Hope Left for the Brexit Deal as the Deadline is Approaching?

As the deadline for a Brexit deal approaches, all eyes are on the negotiations between the EU and UK. Rumors circulating today and tomorrow suggest that an agreement is in sight. However, the intricate nature of the deal may leave many people with lingering doubts, as interpreted through the lens of legal experts and foretold outcomes.

UK's Ambitions vs. EU's Rigor

The UK has long wanted the benefits of being part of the EU while avoiding the responsibilities. This has always been a tricky situation, and the current negotiation is no exception. The idea that the UK might disregard the treaty it has signed upon leaving has caused significant concerns. One suggestion has been to study the model of Singapore. However, it's important to note that for Singapore, tearing up the rule book has come at a cost, with low worker rights and wages but potentially beneficial for currency speculators. The lack of a deal is not ideal, but speculators who have shifted money to Ireland and other EU countries might benefit from a no-deal scenario.

European Parliament's Role

The recent attention has shifted to the directly elected European Parliament, which seems to have taken a stronger stance. Senior MEPs from the four largest European Parliament groups have reportedly agreed not to ratify the UK-EU Partnership Agreement. These groups include the European People's Party (187 seats), the Socialists and Democrats (147 seats), Renew Europe (98 seats), and the Greens (67 seats). Together, these groups form a significant majority of the European Parliament, totaling 499 seats out of the 705 seats. Although some MEPs are denying this story, it serves as a potent reminder of the EU's commitment to upholding its principles.

Potential Prolongation and No-Deal Scenarios

The UK-EU Partnership Agreement could potentially be temporarily and provisionally applied by the Council of the European Union, but this requires the ratification vote from the directly elected European Parliament. The UK government has not yet confirmed if the UK Parliament will have a vote on the agreement. The Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010 (CRAG) mandates that the UK government must provide the UK Parliament with the agreement. Parliament then has 21 sitting days to review it, but this rule can be waived under exceptional circumstances with primary legislation possibly needed for implementation.

Conclusion

The Brexit negotiations currently underway present both challenges and opportunities. While the possibility of a deal is encouraging, the intricacies and potential impacts will continue to be a topic of intense debate. The role of the European Parliament in ratifying the agreement adds another layer of complexity. As the deadline approaches, the outcome will likely have far-reaching consequences for both the UK and the EU. Stay tuned as this story continues to unfold!