Analyzing the 2019 Election Results in Kerala: A Scenario of Democratic India
The results of the 2019 elections in Kerala have left many questioning the democratic process and the decisions of the electorate. While the victory of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) was expected, the performance of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) 19 has been puzzling. This article will delve deep into the various factors that influenced the election results and what they mean for the future of Keralan democracy.
Unexpected Outcomes and Voter Behavior
Although the ideology of the Communist Party is not favored, the victory of the LDF was anticipated given their historical dominance in state politics. However, the 2019 elections brought about a few unforeseen outcomes. The BJP failed to secure even three to five seats as expected, while the Congress struggled to win at least 50 seats. Interestingly, the Muslim community largely supported only LDF candidates, indicating a shift in their political allegiance.
One of the most striking observations is the lack of impact that major events such as the gold scam involving the Chief Minister and the Sabarimala issue had on the voters. Despite these controversies, the Communist Party continues to thrive in Kerala, demonstrating that despite similar ideologies being abandoned elsewhere, it remains a stronghold of the Left.
The Tragedy of Democratic India: Unlearned Lessons?
The article reflects on the tragedy of the democratic process, questioning why the Left Democratic Front, which seemed to be governing efficiently, only received one seat. The collective mind of the educated and politically aware electorate in Kerala has proven to be challenging to gauge. While the Sabarimala issue significantly influenced voters against BJP, the performance of UDF 19 was a surprise. This further underscores the need for introspection within the LDF to understand the evolving political landscape.
The stability in the political scene of Kerala has been characterized by alternating rule between Congress and the communists. However, the steady increase in BJP's share indicates a growing acceptance of the right-wing ideology. But this has not been enough to tilt the balance in favor of BJP. The author is optimistic that the Center's actions and performance will change the political dynamics in Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the future.
Analysis of Factors Influencing the Election
Several factors contributed to the shocking mandate:
Sabarimala Issue: This issue, heavily skewed in favor of the right-wing, played a crucial role. Emergence of UDF: The new right-wing party in Kerala, rather than BJP, contended with LDF. Internal Politics: Many BJP supporters and 'vishwasi samooham' (loyal groups) voted for UDF instead of LDF due to grudges against the ruling LDF. Strong LDF Support Base and Youth: The strong support base of the LDF, coupled with new-generation youth, stayed loyal to LDF. Hindutva Alignments: The BJP's base aligned with Hindutva views. Center-States Relations: The Bharatiya Janata Party-Union Democratic Alliance (BJP-NDA) government at the center and its policies influenced the electorate. Controversial Issues: Issues like GST, demonetization, and political polarizations also had an impact.The Need for Democratic Balance
The author emphasizes the importance of a balanced political landscape in a democracy. A shockingly single-party mandate goes against the principles of democracy, which is about the voice of the minority being heard. The concentration of power without an opposition can lead to tyranny of the majority, something that should be avoided in any democratic system.
Overall, the 2019 Kerala elections highlight the complexities of democratic processes and the need for political parties to remain vigilant and responsive to the changing dynamics of their electorate.